A new forest-elephant number began circulating in late 2025: 135,690 animals. Read without context, it can sound like unexpectedly good news — perhaps forest elephants are recovering faster than previously thought.
That is not what the new assessment says.
What changed?
The IUCN African Elephant Specialist Group reported an estimated 135,690 African forest elephants in areas surveyed between 2016 and 2022, with an additional tentative estimate for unsurveyed or less rigorously surveyed areas.
The central improvement is methodological. According to IUCN, 94% of counted forest elephants are now represented by scientifically robust estimates, compared with 53% in 2016.
DNA is improving forest-elephant surveys
Dense rainforest makes direct elephant counts exceptionally difficult. One increasingly powerful approach is DNA capture-recapture using dung.
Researchers identify genetic profiles from dung samples, then compare repeated samples to determine how often the same individuals are detected. Statistical models can use those “captures” and “recaptures” to estimate population size far more reliably than simply counting signs.
Why more elephants on paper does not equal population growth
IUCN explicitly cautioned against interpreting the updated number as evidence of a population increase. Much of the revision comes from better survey coverage and improved methods, including surveys of places where elephants had previously been poorly counted.
This distinction matters. Better measurement can raise an estimate even while some real populations continue to decline.
The species is still Critically Endangered
The African forest elephant remains listed as Critically Endangered. IUCN notes that populations continue to decline in several important landscapes and that the species experienced a severe historical decline driven mainly by poaching and habitat loss.
Why this is still good news
Better data is good news because uncertainty is itself a conservation problem. If managers do not know where elephants are or how many remain, protection and land-use planning become guesswork.
More reliable counts can help identify strongholds, detect declines earlier and direct anti-poaching or habitat protection more precisely.
The real story
The headline is not “forest elephants have bounced back”. The stronger conclusion is this: scientists are becoming much better at counting an animal that lives in one of the hardest environments on earth to survey.
That may sound less dramatic. For conservation, it is far more useful.
Source
IUCN — DNA methods help uncover further African Forest Elephants (2025)